MORE THAN A FEELING: CONFIDENCE,UNCERTAINTY, AND MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS

Economists, observers, and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper, we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we give an overview of the recent literature on the nexus between sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty) and economic activity. Second, we review existing empirical measures of sentiment, in particular consumer confidence, stock market volatility (SMV) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), on monthly data for 27 countries, 1985–2016. Third, we identify some new stylized facts based on international evidence. While different measures are surprisingly lowly correlated on average in each country, they are typically highly positively correlated across countries, suggesting the existence of a global factor or sizeable international spillovers of sentiment. Consumer confidence has the closest co-movement with economic and financial variables, and most of the correlations are contemporaneous or forward-looking, consistent with the view that economic sentiment is indeed a driver of activity.     

The intellectual structure of the journal Business Strategy and the Environment: A 25‐year author cocitation analysis

This article presents the intellectual structure and 25‐year author cocitation analysis of the journal Business Strategy and the Environment. The findings show that Business Strategy and the Environment is an emerging, well‐established journal in its field. The journal needs a core set of authors who are actively engaged in the production and certification of knowledge; further, it consists of a number of loosely linked research team contributors, each with its own areas of interest. The existence of these research teams is a sign of strength that characterizes the journal as it strives to foster a community of unified scholars whose published works advance our understanding of business strategic decisions and behavior with regard to the natural environment. This study is useful for contributors, readers, and editorial board members who form the journal's community of knowledge creation and certification.     

Resources for business resilience in a COVID-19 world: A community-centric approach

COVID-19 has drawn renewed focus on the importance of resilience, both among practitioners and in academia, as companies struggle to cope with the rapid swings, changing patterns, and disruptions in supply and demand. This article identifies and delineates a way forward for companies to support resilience, particularly recognizing the wider communities they are nested in and the resources that exist there. To identify such productive resources, known as capitals, we provide a novel and actionable integrated capitals framework (ICF). ICF integrates 10 existing frameworks drawn from both practice and academia and is comprised of nine different forms of capital that businesses can leverage and contribute toward supporting resilience. We provide insights into how businesses can use this framework to achieve resilience through this useful, yet underutilized, path.     

Towards the Development of a Tax System Complexity Index

Reducing tax system complexity is a common goal amongst policymakers; yet there is no commonly agreed definition of complexity. This paper seeks to fill this gap, by proposing the construction of an index of tax system complexity, conceived as a summary indicator of the overall complexity of a tax system at a particular point in time. If adopted, such an index would not only enable assessment of the changing level of a country's tax system complexity over time, but may also facilitate comparisons of the relative complexity of different countries' tax systems in future.     

Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

对我国商业银行中间业务的定价机制与风险管理的思考

商业银行中间业务经营成本主要有：人力费用成本、物力消耗成本、风险产品承受成本。定价机理应采用经营成本收费制度，建立全成本核算体系。遵循合理、公平、诚信和质价相符的中间业务定价原则，积极加强与客户的沟通与告知；遵循中间业务定价流程，进行客户层次细分和市场定位；运用SWOT分析法，谋求竞争定价与实行差别定价，积极加强与同业的合作，防止恶性竞争；坚持服务性能创新，提高服务附加值含金量；适时对银行员工进行培训，积极让员工参与定价决策；适应开放型定价的趋势和要求，酌情考虑产品的关系定价。与此同时应强化担保承诺类表外业务的信用风险管理，交易类中间业务的市场风险管理，服务类中间业务的操作风险管理，而表外业务的信用风险和市场风险管理是风险管理重点。此外，商业银行开展中间业务还应防范政策风险和法律风险。     

高管政治背景与民营企业综合税负——基于政治关联的非线性影响研究

民营企业通过与政府建立良好的关系获得与国有企业同等待遇,税负是其中重要的一个方面。现有研究从线性的角度分析了政治关联对民营企业税负的影响,实际上,不同政治关联度对税负的影响方向是不同的。以2009-2011年沪深两市A股主板民营上市公司为样本,探讨政治关联是否影响企业税负以及政治关联度的变化对企业综合税负率的影响。研究发现,政治关联有助于降低民营上市公司综合税负率,且政治关联度与综合税负率之间存在倒U型关系。研究还进一步确定了政治关联度的拐点,为政府规制政策的制定提供参考。     

Transaction services and SME internationalization: The effect of home and host country bank relationships on international investment and growth

Building on the argument put forward by North and Wallis (1994) that the transaction sector enables economic growth by lowering the costs of transacting, we investigate how internationalizing firms’ host and home country bank relationships affect their international specific investments and growth. Banks provide payment, liquidity, and risk management services, which are essential to international business relationships, yet little is known about how banks affect international business relationships. In a sample of 255 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we find that host and home country bank relationships affect the dependent variables differently. We contribute to the literature by explicating the role and effects of banks in international business relationships. Our findings have implications for understanding transaction services in international business as well as the choices made by their customers.     

通州北京城市副中心高端商务发展研究

高端商务产业的发达程度,是衡量城市综合竞争力和现代化水平的重要标志,作为北京城市副中心,通州发展高层次、高增值、强辐射的高端商务产业,不仅能有助于提升通州新城综合竞争力,更能提高北京城市化的发展层次,增强可持续发展的能力. 因此高端商务已成为通州城市副中心落实功能定位、发展现代服务业的重点产业. 本文意在分析通州高端商务发展存在的问题,并提出发展通州北京城市副中心高端商务的实现路径.     

城市居民税负感及影响因素的实证研究

根据北京市居民税负感调查所得数据,通过对居民税负感及其影响因素之间的相关性实证研究,得出结论,税负感与收入、文化程度、年龄以及对税收的了解程度等因素呈显著正相关,与是否参加社保呈显著负相关。在被调查的居民中,超过一半的居民税负感较重或很重,其中,收入越高和对税收了解的越多税负感就越重,本科学历和中年人群税负感较重,未参加社保的居民税负感较重,参加社保的居民税负感较轻。税负感研究的结论显示,居民税负感不仅与税收负担的高低密切相关,而且与国家的财政支出方向密切相关,扩大财政的民生开支是降低居民税负感的重要途径。